AI's Potential is Way Beyond Bubbles



  • AI technologies induces groundbreaking changes to industries amid the increasingly widespread applications of AI
  • AI defines the new era of data computing and is benefiting upstream, midstream and downstream firms
  • AI bolsters productivity and lifts companies' return, with structural long-term growth potential

Artificial Intelligence (AI) craze repeatedly pushed US stocks to record highs. Is AI a bubble? BEA Union Investment believes the power of AI goes beyond bubbles. AI technologies demonstrate sound fundamentals, induce groundbreaking changes to industries amid increasingly widespread applications while valuations of AI-related tech firms remain reasonable.

Looking at the tech boom back in 2000, the S&P 500 was trading at a price-to-earnings ratio (P/E)  of around 28x, while the Four Horsemen of the big tech companies - Intel, Cisco, Dell and Microsoft, stood at a whopping average of about 62x. Today, the 12-month forward P/E of the S&P 500 was about 20x as of early August 2024, while the average of the "Magnificent 7" was 32x, which we consider reasonable. Although US rates are hovering at high levels, with the 10-year US treasury yield perching at about 3.9%, it is still way below the approximate 6% in 2000. Hefty borrowing costs and weak fundamentals -- as tech firms often splurged on inexecutable concepts, led to insufficient cash flow and losses. This is in stark contrast to the tech giants of today, which are financially healthy with many sitting on ample cash flow and enjoying solid earnings growth.


AI buoys productivity and corporate profitability; a boon to an array of industries

AI defines the new era of data computing -- a process that requires the massive use of high-end chips, memory, servers and data centres. These suppliers often originate from Asia, notably Taiwan and South Korea, as well as Australia. An Australia-based real estate investment trust (REIT) started diversifying its business as early as 2005, when it began establishing data centres across major cities, such as Tokyo and Hong Kong and supported these operations with the firm's own power banks. The firm has a low leverage ratio, strong cash flow and has recently revised up its EPS forecast for its fiscal year 2024. Over in Taiwan, a world semiconductor supplier posted a 27% year-on-year increase in its January-May revenue. Apparently, the development of AI technologies is a boon to companies across the supply chain, benefiting upstream, midstream and downstream firms.

AI is also driving the energy industry. The International Energy Agency indicated every search performed on ChatGPT required about 10 times more energy than that conducted on Google. In addition, the agency estimated power consumed by global data centres could more than double between 2023 and 2026. This trend will power the development of energy industry, particularly renewable energy. The application of AI technologies is expanding, bringing irreversible and ground-breaking reforms to numerous industries such as healthcare, retail, financial as well as food and beverages. In the healthcare sector, for instance, AI technologies can improve the efficiency and accuracy of diagnosis across endoscopy, CT scan and X ray images, among others. Banks, on the other hand, can conduct data analysis via AI-powered platforms to better detect and prevent frauds and financial crime activities. From a retail perspective, AI-assisted systems can optimise inventories by generating real-time analysis on inventory levels against sales forecast and market trends, reducing wastage while satisfying customer demand.

We have a strong conviction that AI will become the next milestone in tech development, effectively bolstering productivity and subsequently lifting companies' return on equities and price-to-book ratios. The widespread adoption of AI underscores the technology's structural long-term growth potential. As AI technology advances and its application increasingly broadens out, it will continuously bring changes to the way we live and work. Companies that manage to ride the AI transformation bandwagon will unquestionably benefit from improving innovation and efficiencies. Our investment teams will closely monitor the AI trends to better understand the risks and opportunities the technology brings about.